Canadian Politics from Canada's Centre

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Middle East Analysts' Impressive Foresight

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Two people with significant knowledge of the Middle East whom I've read in the past and have the highest respect for have proven incredible foresight. The first is brilliant political analyst Elliot Chodoff who writes and speaks in many public forums, and the second is world-renowned scholar Bernard Lewis, whose books on Islam are standard reading in colleges and university.

Consider this, from the Middle East on Target website.

"Gunmen fired rocket-propelled grenades Tuesday at a pro-Fatah Palestinian Authority security compound in the Gaza Strip, moderately wounding three maintenance workers, security and hospital officials said. - Ha'aretz - June 2006

With Israel out of the immediate picture, the terrorist organizations are likely to turn their guns on each other as they vie for power over the overcrowded cities and refugee camps, allowing order to rule only when it is their own... The battle for the control of Gaza has just begun; we don't expect to see a conclusion any time soon. - Elliot Chodoff - July 2004"

The other is something I recall hearing at a speech given here in Montreal by Bernard Lewis in the fall/winter of 2004: Iran is the world's biggest threat. At the time I had trouble giving credence to what he was saying, but it is obvious now with hindsight that he was right.

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